Tyndall Centre at 25: UK must step up climate ambition, report warns
The UK now uses less energy than almost anyone anticipated 20 years ago, but opportunities to act on this potential were largely missed, according to a new report published by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at 51福利社 today.
鈥�, published to mark the Centre鈥檚 25th anniversary, looks back at the Tyndall Centre鈥檚 own energy scenarios, alongside more than 80 others produced in the 2000s. The study found that while most scenarios assumed some level of reduction in energy demand, only one - Tyndall Centre鈥檚 鈥淩ed鈥� scenario - came close to predicting the UK鈥檚 actual energy demand in 2022.
The researchers say this mismatch reveals that early scenarios often focused on untested technologies while overlooking practical and proven ways to reduce energy use, such as improving public transport, insulating homes, and reducing air travel.
They identified that these modelling choices often influenced policy debates, with optimism about new technologies often overshadowing everyday solutions, potentially limiting the scope of decarbonisation deemed possible by policymakers.
By comparing the envisioned futures with the UK energy system changes that actually emerged, the authors show where foresight was limited, where assumptions proved overambitious, and where genuine transformation was underestimated.
The report also reflects on two decades of Tyndall Centre鈥檚 research. Starting with the Royal Commission鈥檚 60% carbon cut target by 2050, the Tyndall Centre helped bring carbon budgets to the centre of UK climate policy and highlighted the need for action across all sectors, including aviation and shipping,.
鈥淥ur research underscores how scenarios underestimated the potential of the less exciting but proven solutions 鈥� things like energy efficiency, public transport, home insulation 鈥� while being too optimistic about how quickly seemingly promising technologies like fossil fuel with carbon capture and storage would actually materialise at scale.鈥�
The authors argue that energy scenarios aiming to support an urgent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, must explore a wider range of options, with greater focus on proven solutions such as efficiency, lifestyle change, and equity. Doing so would open up more options for policymakers to deliver on their climate ambition, reduce reliance on unproven technologies, and align the UK鈥檚 energy pathways more closely with climate science.
鈥淐limate change is accelerating and already impacting on people鈥檚 everyday lives, yet our ambition has been failing to meet the scale of the challenge. With time running out, we need to better understand how to reconfigure existing technologies and behaviours, so we can transition more rapidly to a low-energy, low-carbon society.鈥�
Decarbonising the UK revisited is being launched at the Tyndall Centre鈥檚 25th Anniversary Conference at the University of East Anglia (UEA) on Monday, 8 September. Our Critical Decade for Climate Action is a major meeting for 300 researchers from 20 countries.
The report is part of a wider project at Tyndall Centre that explores how energy scenarios influence policy and what lessons can be drawn halfway through this critical decade for climate action.
Read the full report